[discuss] How Snowdonia strengthens the real US position

Wed Jan 8 15:03:19 UTC 2014

One of the assumptions that seems to underly the discussions here is that
the Snowden disclosures have crippled the US position and made it more
difficult for the US to get what it wants.

If we consider the US government position to be a coalition of views rather
than a monolith, it seems to me that the factions within the administration
that favor an open Internet have been considerably strengthened.

Snowdonia has certainly knocked the stuffing out of the NSA/DoD camp which
is the faction that rather obviously sees US governance of the Internet as
one of the jewels in the US imperial crown. This is actually rather good
for the factions that understand the real value of the Internet and open
speech as a means to disrupt and destroy some rather nasty authoritarian
regimes.

I see two very different positions within the US camp. One position is that
the US needs to ensure the openness of the Internet at all costs and that
this requires the US ensure that control does not fall into the hands of
the governments wanting global censorship. The other position is the
oderint dum metuant crowd who just want their flag on top of everything.
The difference being that the first group is more than willing to make
concessions if they reinforce their actual goal while the second is not
prepared to make any concession to the ungrateful foreigners under any
circumstances.

Snowdonia has put the 'flag on top' faction on the defensive. they may
understand that their position is very weak and tactical concessions may be
required. If not, Snowdonia has made it much easier to replace them.

The weakness of the US has also forced non-aligned parties to reconsider
their positions. Merkel and Rouseff both know what it is like to live under
a police state. They know what Putin is and what Obama is and that they are
not two sides of the same coin.

Nor are Russia and China the same. The actions of China are at least
consistent with the theory that the upper strata in the Chinese leadership
understands that their challenge is how to dismantle the one state system
before it collapses without precipitating the conflict they are trying to
avoid. The Cultural Revolution casts a long shadow there. Putin's objective
on the other hand is unambiguously to seize and maintain absolute control.

When the US position was very strong it was quite logical for Brazil and
the rest to work with Russia in an attempt to form a constituency capable
of creating a counterbalance. That is a dangerous game now that the US is
weak.

Dismantling the NSA apparatus will come but it will come through different
mechanisms than the conference. The NSA is not going to be shut down or
have limits imposed through international treaty. There would be no way to
verify such a treaty for a start.

The only way to dismantle the global intercept regime is to deploy
ubiquitous strong cryptography. One way for Brazil to encourage that would
be to declare itself a free trade zone for crypto by assuring developers
that they will be free from the government harassment we get elsewhere.

-- 
Website: http://hallambaker.com/
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